Last week the UK’s Climate Change Committee, (CCC), a government appointed body, published their 440-page annual report to Parliament commenting on progress in the UK against the net zero emissions targets. The headline was “Better transparency is no substitute for real delivery. Our confidence in the UK meeting its goals from 2030 onwards is now markedly less than it was in our previous assessment a year ago”. This reduced confidence is driven by both delays in action and in some cases, more thorough assessment this time leading to more pessimistic conclusions.
The UK target is to reduce emissions by 68% from the 1990 level by 2030. But according to the new report, there doesn’t seem much chance of hitting that target unless there are dramatic changes pretty quickly to government policy and public behaviour. “Some of the key planks of the UK Net Zero Strategy have substantial lead-times (e.g. hydrogen storage, greenhouse gas removals and carbon capture and storage (CCS) more generally). Progress in other areas is also too slow, including tree planting and the roll-out of low-carbon heating”.
Generally, the CCC sees the UK has “lost its clear global leadership position on climate action”. Even after the shock of energy prices rising rapidly following the invasion of Ukraine, the government didn’t take any steps to reduce demand (unlike many other countries). That is a sign of the political paralysis in the Conservative Party which is split internally in so many ways, including between the free-market cadre and those who would like to see more government intervention or even diktat in climate matters.
Emissions in the UK have reduced by 46% since 1990. But the 2022 figure was 0.8% higher than in 2021. Variation from 2021 was driven mainly by the post-pandemic adjustment – air and car travel both recovered further, for instance. But a mild winter helped in terms of home energy consumption. However, “the rate of emissions reduction will need to significantly increase for the UK to meet its 2030 NDC and the Sixth Carbon Budget. If the UK is to achieve its NDC, the rate of emissions reduction outside the electricity supply sector must almost quadruple, from 1.2% annual reductions to 4.7%.”
That is the key point here really. The UK is not moving fast enough to hit the target it set itself. Some of the problem areas include:
Transport – electric car sales are on track, despite the complaints about lack of charging points, but electric van sales are disappointing and behind the assumptions made.
Electricity supply – capacity increased in 2022, but not at the required rate. More onshore wind and solar “could have helped to mitigate dependence on imported gas during the fossil fuel crisis” – but the government decided it doesn’t like onshore developments.
Building – heat pump installation is pathetic, running at one ninth of the target, and there are issues around consumer acceptance, the skills required for installation and more. Other energy efficiency measures are below the necessary levels and actually fell further in 2022.
Trees – despite what seems like every business in the world claiming that they are supporting tree planting to offset emissions, UK planting rates continue to be too low and are not increasing at the rate required.
Industry - Progress in this sector is “hard to track due to poor availability of data”. But the CCC believes it is off-track for most available indicators. The Committee says, “the Government should review, invest in and reform industrial decarbonisation data collection and reporting”.
In some areas, there does not appear to have been any government action at all. It looks like some potential initiatives just are put into the “politically unacceptable” bucket – such as higher taxes on air travel or legal restrictions such as the recent French move. Others, such as changing our diets to reduce emissions (less meat and dairy, for instance) probably fall into the “too difficult” bucket as well as the political risks.
There has been some progress since last year in certain areas, but overall the picture is pretty gloomy. The CCC makes no less than 27 policy recommendations. How many will be implemented by next year’s report? Don’t hold your breath, but perhaps after the 2024 election we will see more focused government effort, whoever wins. And let’s finish with a quote from the very first page of the report.
The record-breaking temperatures seen in the UK in summer 2022 brought unprecedented numbers of heat-related deaths, wildfire incidents and significant infrastructure disruption. Human activities are causing our climate to change. Only decisive action will slow further changes.