The full-on climate change deniers seem to have gone a bit quiet these days, as record temperatures, wildfires, floods and droughts sweep the planet. Similarly, there aren’t too many people around who think it’s a clever idea to continually increasing the amount of plastic we throw away into the oceans and landfill. However, there are major differences when it comes to the pace of change, a tension that is being heightened at this moment by the crisis in the energy markets of many countries.
In the UK, we have seen petrol supply shortages at retail level, and rapid price increases. The veneer of civilisation and civilised behaviour was shown to be thinner than we might like to think, as motorists literally fought each other in queues for the precious fuel. Gas prices across Europe have soared, with the wholesale price in the UK over six times its level at the beginning of 2021. Families face bills going up hundreds or thousands of pounds over the next 12 months.
The political and economic effects of this are hard to predict in detail but this crisis has highlighted huge challenges around the global and national targets on emissions – including the UK net zero by 2030 target. Disruptive change in markets has consequences for consumers, who are also taxpayers and voters. Higher prices for energy might support the net zero target; persuading motorists with petrol-powered cars to drive less (or indeed forcing them to do so in some way) is another tactic often suggested to reduce emissions.
Yet we can see how unpopular such moves could be based on our current experience. The media is much more concerned about issues of energy security than it is about emissions right now. That is understandable, and it is certainly worth discussing whether Europe should be getting more and more reliant on Russia for its gas supply. Remember, this is a country that tried to execute its enemies via deadly poison in an English cathedral city not too long ago!
I’m not suggesting we go back on our commitments - we need to take action quickly to address climate change. Every 5 weeks is another 1% of the time we have to hit the 2030 targets, as my collaborator Mark Perera keeps reminding me and anyone who will listen! But the process has to be expertly managed, and there are tough questions around political willpower, how voters will accept net-zero related initiatives, and whether the appropriate skills in change management exist in major companies, the civil service and the political class.
So change must be delivered at pace, but it also needs to be very carefully managed. Nobody wants to see the consequences of unfettered global warming; but equally we really don’t want riots on the street (or in the petrol stations), pensioners dying in unheated homes, and poverty growing rapidly as we implement the required measures. That will be the challenge over the coming years.
(On a more positive note, a new study says that daily meat consumption in the UK has fallen by 17% in the last decade. That should be having a positive impact on both emissions and human health, one would assume.)